Betting On Boxing
Knocking the Risk Out of Betting On Boxing
In following my passion for betting on boxing over many years, I’ve learned some important facts (sometimes the hard way). First of all, you can't make big returns betting on boxing favorites, because you have to risk a lot to make a little. And, of course, if you’re betting on boxing underdogs only, you will definitely lose money, because most of them will probably lose (that’s why they call them underdogs).
The key to successfully betting on boxing is in knowing which "dogs" have a reasonable shot at winning, then systematically placing modest, low-risk bets. No, you won't win them all, but when you are frequently betting on boxing against the odds, your wins will more than make up for your losses. Yes, there are times when I will recommend betting on the favorite, especially if there are interesting "proposition bets" available (see below). I would never recommend a straight bet on an overwhelming favorite, even if the bout appears to be a gross mismatch. It's just too risky. When you're betting on boxing, remember anything can happen in a prizefight, no matter who the principals are.
Betting On Boxing the WRONG way!
A great example of what I’m talking about is the Mike Tyson vs. Buster Douglas fight in 1990. Tyson was a 42/1 favorite, and most people (including the "experts") thought he was unbeatable. Well, he under-trained and met a known under-achiever, Buster Douglas – but Douglas came to the fight motivated and well prepared. As we all know Douglas won "the upset of the century." One bettor learned this lesson the hard way; he wagered $100,000 on Tyson figuring he'd pick-up an easy $2500...obviously a disaster! My point here is that when you’re betting on boxing, it’s better to risk a little and win a lot than risk a lot for a small payout. The loss potential is small and the possible gains are great. When I’m betting on boxing, if I lose one or two, I don't get hurt, and in the long run, I know I'm going to come out ahead.
I’m Always Looking for Value!
If a fighter is a 5/1 underdog, and my analysis tells me that he probably should be an even bet or perhaps even the favorite, that boxer is undervalued. This makes bells and whistles go off in my head! It means a bettor has an even-money chance (or better) to make a 500% return on his wager. That's what I call value! Now obviously the odds-makers don't always get it wrong like this. But when they do (which is surprisingly often), you have a chance to make some serious money. Sometimes they don't view the match-up properly. At other times they may set a line that will encourage two-way action on the fight. If lopsided odds cause the public to bet only one side, then the sports book suffers a loss - and they’re not in business to lose money.
Understanding Boxing Odds
For betting on boxing, odds-makers at the sports books establish what is called a "money line" to express the odds on each fight. The favored fighter is represented by a negative number, and the underdog by a positive number, so a typical money line might look like this: Smith -200 vs. Jones +200. This means that you would have to wager $200 on Smith (the favorite) to win $100, or you would have to bet $100 on Jones (the underdog) to win $200. Winning either way, you would get back $300 (including your original bet), but as you can see, you would have to risk $200 to get $300 back on the favorite, while you would risk only $100 for the same return on the underdog.
Every sports book sets its own money lines for betting on boxing, and some may offer more favorable odds than others on the bet you wish to place. It’s up to you to shop around to find the best line for your particular wager. You also need to know that the odds may change several times before the day of the fight. The lines (or odds) may be adjusted to reflect the amount of money being bet on the contestants, just like a horse race. However the money line in place at the time you make your bet is the money line you will win or lose by, even if the sports book changes the line after you place your bet. Again, the timing of your wager is up to you. BoxingForecast.com has no control or responsibility for money lines set by others.
The example described above is a simple win or lose bet (a "straight bet"). That is, if your fighter wins, you win. But there are other ways of betting on boxing. For example, frequently there are also money lines offered on so-called "proposition bets," in which you may wager on how the fight is won – such as a knockout (which includes TKO & disqualification)] or decision, or how long the fight will last (over or under a certain number of rounds), or whether or not the fight will be a draw. Since these outcomes are more difficult to predict, they frequently offer longer odds. Sometimes I will recommend a proposition bet, alone or in combination with a straight bet, as a way of increasing the wagering leverage or as a way to "hedge" a bet by reducing its risk.
Whether you are a newcomer to betting on boxing or a veteran, BoxingForecast.com will help you sort out the complexities that go with betting on boxing. Every week, out of the hundreds of bouts scheduled around the world, I’ll analyze the three, four, or five fights that I think you should be betting on. I’ll tell you how to bet those fights, and what percentage of your betting funds you should put at risk.
As I like to say: “I do all the work – YOU make the money!"
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