Cotto vs. Margarito
7/26/2008 - Cotto/Margarito
MATCH-UP: Miguel Cotto vs. Antonio Margarito
DIVISION: WBA welterweight title � 12 Rounds
FIGHT DATE: Saturday, July 26, 2008 @ 9 pm EST on HBO
LOCATION: MGM Grand Las Vegas, NV, USA
RECORD: Cotto: 32 (26) - 0 (0) - 0 Margarito: 36 (26) - 5 (0) - 0
BETTING LINE: Cotto -250 Margarito +200 Over 9.5 -180 Under 9.5 +155
RATING:
(Rating Explanation...)
Fight Summary | The way I see it | How I would bet on the fight
Fight Summary:
There have been many great fights in recent years but this fight may be the match-up of the decade. In this contest Miguel Cotto defends his WBA title against Antonio Margarito in what should be a thriller. Both men are tough, brutal and ruthless and pound for pound King Floyd Mayweather has been ducking these dangerous men for years. If Mayweather doesn't fight the winner of this contest then it will prove (to anyone with a modicum of intelligence) that he's not interested in fighting someone that has a "real" chance to beat him at this point in his career. I'm not a shill for the fight but I encourage anyone that enjoys boxing or fighting of any kind not to miss this fight. It will be televised on HBO and I'll be there live for this one.
This clash is a boxing fans dream fight. There is so much on the line at so many levels. The winner will be king of the ring and all the trappings that accompany that honor. There is the Mexican and Puerto Rican rivalry that is simply huge, especially for the fighter’s countrymen. The fighters will be well compensated for this contest but the winner may realize the possibility of an 8 figure payday in the near future. The rough, never give in styles of the fighters make this so compelling. They both combine boxing, fighting and brawling, but on the highest level, which makes this fight all the more gripping. Cotto and Margarito may not have the fanfare, yet, that guys like Oscar de la Hoya, Floyd Mayweather or Ricky Hatton enjoy. But make no mistake this is a true boxing super fight and I imagine the pressure will be immense. This is not a showcase for one guy like Mayweather and De la Hoya often engaged in. This is a blood and guts fight between unrelenting, elite tough guys that either guy could win. This could be one for the ages.
Cotto was an outstanding amateur star that entered the pro ranks with very high expectations. He’s had a few bumps in the road but has still yet to lose. And those rough patches were earlier in his career. Things have been smoother for Cotto since he jumped from 140 to 147. Cotto is a compact 5’6 but he can do it all. He can grind down opponents or expertly box when he chooses. He has a very heavy and accurate jab and sweet right hand and a killer left hook to body – he is effective with it to the head, too. He has tremendous stamina and is usually very strong late in a fight. He’s been hurt and dropped in fights but has always had the resolve to turn things around. He’s very relaxed in the ring and will not get rattled even under adversity. And he manages to always, so far, to find a way to win.
At 140 Cotto was dropped and hurt badly by bomber Ricardo Torres but Cotto kept his wits and eventually broke Torres in the 7th round. And quick lefty De Marcus Corley badly hurt Cotto in their fight but Cotto bided his time and quickly turned things around. It’s well known that Cotto was struggling to make 140 so after he beat Paulie Malignaggi 2 years ago, Cotto moved up to 147. In his first fight he was stunning in a comprehensive destruction of slick and well schooled Carlos Quintana. Cotto had a stay busy fight with awkward Oktay Urkal and didn’t look that great but he didn’t have to get that win.
Then he fought quick, hard hitting lefty Zab Judah. Cotto was cut and buzzed in that fight but eventually wore the front running Judah down for a late stoppage – including hitting low to get a respite. In his penultimate fight, he had his toughest fight of his career against Shane Mosley. Cotto was accurate and effective but Mosley stayed with him every step of the way. And strangely, Cotto seemed fatigued and possibly even hurt in the last third of the fight but he was able to use an effective jab and movement to pull out the close win on the hard charging Mosley. In Cotto’s last fight, he had target practice against a game but outgunned Alfonso Gomez. Gomez was hospitalized several weeks before they fought with a mysterious stomach ailment but I still think Cotto still would have won impressively.
Margarito has taken a different path to get to this mega fight. He boxed as a boy and quit school to turn pro at the tender age of 15. He’s now been a pro nearly half his life. His road was hard and not loaded with a lot of fanfare or riches. He was a boy thrown into the ring with men. It was sink or swim in the early days. Margarito was never drowned but he certainly was swimming up stream. He took 3 losses early on but kept on going - and kept getting better. Since a loss to slickster Rodney Jones in 1996 Margarito has lost only twice in 30 fights. And those losses were close, debatable and to current champions. Margarito is a tall welterweight at nearly 5’11.
He’s not the classic boxer type. He is pure fighter but he’s much more than a crude brawler. He can seem slow and wide with his punches but has no trouble touching fast boxers. And before you know it, Margarito is laying a beating on a guy that he was supposed to struggle with. His pressure in relentless and will throw in excess of 100 punches a round. He can jab but prefers to mix a brutal attack from the body to head and back to body again. He is a supremely conditioned fighter that I’ve never seen look tired. He has a teak tough with a chin made out of cast iron. I saw video of him doing jaw push-ups a few years ago (only his toes and jaw were touching the floor) so it’s no accident that he’s tough in that area although genetics certainly plays a role. He has heavy hands and is a punishing fighter.
In 2004, he lost a technical split decision to master southpaw boxer Daniel Santos in Santo’s native Puerto Rico. It was close but I thought Margarito was slightly ahead and getting stronger. Santos is now a champion at 154. And Margarito’s other more recent loss was to the freakishly tall southpaw Paul Williams via decision. It was also close and Margarito closed very well but was just edged on the cards. Williams is someone that not many at 147 relishes to fight and is a stylistic nightmare for anyone. Margarito’s most impressive wins were his 2 KO’s over murderous welterweight puncher Kermit Cintron. In their first match in 2005, which was a pick-em fight, Margarito showed his toughness and experience and scored a one sided 5th round stoppage.
But Cintron went back to school with trainer Emanuel Steward, make a lot of improvements and won a world title. Cintron was confident he was ready for Margarito. They met in April, 2008 and Cintron showed improvement and more fortitude. The problem was it didn’t matter. Cintron landed bombs, that I believe, may have stopped any other welterweight in the world but Margarito easily absorbed Cintron’s bombs and proceeded to brutally punish Cintron with terrible power shots. Cintron really tried and landed heavy bombs but he simply couldn’t discourage Margarito. Finally Margarito lowered the boom on Cintron with a sickening barrage of shots culminating with a savage left hook to the flank that dropped Cintron for well over the count.
I’d say the majority of pundits are backing Cotto. He’s considered the better boxer and quicker guy so many think he has more dimensions than Margarito. And there is some truth to that. Cotto can “box” better than Margarito and probably does have an edge in speed. Their power is comparable but I think Margarito can force a faster pace that Cotto may enjoy. I’d say Margarito is the physically stronger guy and has the better chin. Although, I don’t think Cotto has a poor chin despite being on floor. Margarito has shown an ability to close the gap on very good boxers. He did that with Daniel Santos who is one the slicker and better boxers in the game today.
It seems that no matter how much an opponent may want to avoid a war with Margarito they simply cannot stop it from happening. I can imagine Cotto boxing and successfully using his jab and placing his power shots well but I don’t think that will prevent Margarito from coming forward and imposing his will. Besides being hurt early in his career, I’ve never seen Cotto in such distress than he was in the late rounds with Mosley. It seemed Mosley was reasonably to very close to breaking the mighty Cotto but he just didn’t make it. And Cotto, of course, showed his ring intelligence and ability by adjusting his game to the seemingly stronger Mosley.
But while I like Mosley, I think Margarito is a different animal. I do expect a compelling and interesting contest. Cotto is an elite fighter and will certainly have some successes and look great at times in the fight. But I think Margarito has what it takes to impose his size, strength and vast will on Cotto. Margarito is not a shrinking violet and I do not think he will wilt late in the fight like Judah did. Cotto is tough but in Margarito I believe he is meeting someone that is steelier than himself. They will both be well prepared but I think Margarito can get through some early rough patches and slowly break Cotto down as time passes. I’m going with Margarito to score the stunning upset by KO – perhaps somewhere around the 10th round.
How I would bet on the fight:
I’m putting 2.5% of the BoxingForecast fund on a Margarito win.
