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Avalos vs. Nieves

1/29/2010 - Avalos/Nieves

MATCH-UP: Chris Avalos vs. Jose Nieves

DIVISION: bantamweight � 10 Rounds

FIGHT DATE: Friday, January 29, 2010 @ 9pm EST on Showtime

LOCATION: Tingley Coliseum Albuquerque, NM, USA

RECORD: Avalos: 14(11)-0(0)-0 Nieves: 17(8)-1(0)-3

BETTING LINE: Avalos -300 Nieves +250 Over 8.5 +120 Under 8.5 -150

RATING:
(Rating Explanation...)

Fight Summary | The way I see it | How I would bet on the fight

Fight Summary:
Chris Avalos takes on Jose Nieves in a bantamweight battle of bantamweight prospects. This bout will be featured on Showtime on Friday night as part of their successful ShoBox series.

The way I see it:

Nieves is a crafty southpaw that can switch stances and can be an elusive fighter. He’s not a heavy handed fighter and more than half his wins have gone the distance. He does hold a win over the tough veteran Tomas Rojas. He lost a close battle with fellow Puerto Rican prospect Victor Fonseca.

Avalos is the kind of fighter the fans buy tickets for. He can punch very hard and he’s super aggressive. And he will sometimes eschew defense and engage in shootouts which make for fan friendly action. And so far it’s been working as he’s 140 with 11 knockouts.

He’s turned back some fellow prospects with startling brutality although he had a very tough go of it with Giovanni Caro until he explosively ended matters in the 4th round. Avalos has some work to do as he’s 20, but his kind of power can’t be learned and he may become something special.

I expect an Avalos win in this win. I think he’s simply too powerful and explosive. The question here is can eh do it inside of 8.5 rounds. And as I said, Nieves is elusive and plays keep away in his bouts. But he was dropped a total of 5 times in his bouts with Fonseca and Rojas.

And Avalos is a tall fighter, aggressive fighter that has been a good hunter thus far as a pro. And I have a feeling that if Avalos catches Fonseca with something, he won’t let him hang around to hear the final bell. I’m going with an Avalos win inside the distance, probably somewhere around the 5th round.

How I would bet on the fight:
I’m putting 2% of the BoxingForecast fund on the fight going UNDER 8.5 rounds. Betting line came from thegreek.com. I give this outcome about a 60% chance of happening. If the betting line goes to -175 I would probably pass on this play.

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