Alexander vs. Urango
3/06/2010 - Alexander/Urango
MATCH-UP: Devon Alexander vs. Juan Urango
DIVISION: IBF & WBC light welterweight title � 12 Rounds
FIGHT DATE: Saturday, March 6, 2010 @ 9 pm EST on HBO
LOCATION: Mohegan Sun Casino Uncasville, CT, USA
RECORD: Alexander: 19(12)-0(0)-0 Urango: 22(17)-2(0)-1
BETTING LINE: Alexander -485 Urango +385 Over 11.5 -210 Under -11.5 +175
RATING:
(Rating Explanation...)
Fight Summary | The way I see it | How I would bet on the fight
Fight Summary:
This is a high stakes fight as each man brings a world title belt to the fray. Juan Urango defends his IBF light welterweight crown while Devon Alexander brings the WBC trinket to the dance. The winner will hold 2 major titles (out of 4) in the division. Amir Kahn and Tim Bradley hold the WBA and WBO titles, respectively. Perhaps the winner of this fight could further unify the titles and, wishful thinking, work towards an undisputed world champion which is very rare today in the alphabet soup of titles.
The whole world seems to think Alexander will easily cruise to a decision win of crude Juan Urango. And that result is certainly a reasonable possibility. Alexander doesn’t hit excessively hard, Urango has a good chin and he can be plodding and out maneuvered. Based on that data, I could certainly see it happening. I certainly believe that if Alexander does win, the decision will be the likely manner in which victory comes.
But I think this contest needs further review and I do think Urango is quite under valued as a near 4-1 underdog. Perhaps I’m missing it, but I don’t see Alexander as a extraordinary fighter like some may believe he is or will be. Don’t get me wrong. He is very good. And he is a bright young man that seems to have his head on straight that stays focused and in the gym. That type of professionalism is always a plus.
He had an excellent amateur career and is undefeated thus far as a pro. Alexander is a southpaw with good speed and work rate. But he doesn’t seem like an overly elusive fighter and is willing to engage. His three biggest wins came against Demarcus Corley (W12), Jesus Rodriguez (KO9) and Junior Witter (KO8). They look good on paper but he was more workman like than spectacular.
Corley was already fairly shopworn and while Alexander won handily, he didn’t make a “statement.” Against the light hitting Rodriquez the fight was reasonably competitive but he was simply outgunned – and perhaps under trained. And in the Witter fight, his biggest win, Witter put on a shuck and jive performance, letting Alexander back him up, but he didn’t really get hit much. Witter, apparently quite disinterested, quit on his stool in their 8th round claiming an injured hand. But Witter looked old, and very reluctant to try to make something happen with the well conditioned Alexander.
Urango does have certain limitations but he brings some positives into this fight as well. The negative on Urango is that he can fight in a methodical manner and is not the fastest guy in the world. But while methodical, he will always come forward, he is freakishly strong for the 140 pound division and he is a dangerous puncher.
He can hurt people to the body and break them down over time. He takes a very good punch and in spite of the aura of a slugger, he keeps his hands high, his chin tucked – he isn’t easy to hit cleanly. Further, he has heart and fortitude. In his last fight with Randal Bailey, Urango got caught, dropped and cut with a right hand in the 6th round of their fight.
Bailey while not a champion, was in a renaissance as a fighter and may have the single most devastating straight right hand in the business – pound for pound. He can put the lights out with one shot. Not many can really do that.
Urango dragged himself up from that hammer and fought his way back in the fight, eventually breaking Bailey’s will and everything else for an 11th round stoppage. To get caught like that and come back showed great determination.
And the good thing for Urango is that Alexander does not have a hammer like that. Also, Urango has picked up good experience over the years with fights against Ricky Hatton (L12), Herman Ngoudjo (W12) and Andre Berto (L12).
I believe Urango has already faced better people than Alexander. Hatton was at or near his peak as a 140 pound champion 3 years ago in early 2007, Urango battered a highly respected Ngoudjo and he moved up to welterweight to take on Andre Berto for his title.
Urango lost to Berto but he went to body well at times in that fight and kept coming forward. Berto looked uncomfortable and struggled quite a bit in the match. And Berto may have the fastest hands in the game, right up there with Pacquiao and Mayweather.
So my point in all this is that I’m not sure Alexander brings anything better than Urango has already seen. He doesn’t hit as hard as Bailey, Berto, Hatton or Ngoudjo for that matter. I certainly don’t see him as speedier than Berto and not nearly as strong.
I believe Alexander will be pressed in this fight and if he doesn’t use enough movement, he will have a real struggle on his hands. If Urango could have modest success with the likes of Berto and steamroll very solid guys like Bailey and Ngoudjo, I could imagine he’ll be quite handful for Alexander.
Alexander, while busy and fast, will probably engage Urango and if so, I don’t think he can win that way. Not with Urango’s brutal body attack and pressure. As I said, earlier, an Alexander win by decision is a very possible outcome but I don’t see it as the formality many do.
Urango is at a great price and I believe is “live’ and has a real shot to score the upset. I’m going with Urango to bring pressure, and eventually force Alexander out with an accumulation of punches, perhaps somewhere around the 10th round.
How I would bet on the fight:
I give Urango nearly a 50% shot at this. He is worth a play at his price. I’m putting 1.5% of the BoxingForecast fund on a Urango win. Betting line came from 5dimes.com. I don’t think the odds will shift much on this one so the price should remain good. For those that like Alexander, I think the decision prop is the way to go. You have to lay about 5-1 on the Alexander straight bet, which I see as way over priced.
