Alvarez vs. Camacho
3/06/2010 - Alvarez/Camacho
MATCH-UP: Shamone Alvarez vs. Alexis Camacho
DIVISION: welterweight � 10 Rounds
FIGHT DATE: Saturday, March 6, 2010 @ 9 pm EST on gofightlive.com
LOCATION: Tropicana Hotel & Casino Atlantic City, NJ, USA
RECORD: Alvarez: 20(11)-2(0)-0 Camacho: 17(16)-2(0)-0
BETTING LINE: Alvarez -700 Camacho +500 Over 9.5 - 350 Under 9.5 +28
RATING:
(Rating Explanation...)
Fight Summary | The way I see it | How I would bet on the fight
Fight Summary:
Welterweight fringe contender Shamone Alvarez takes on brawler Alexis Camacho in a 10 round welterweight bout from Atlantic City, New Jersey on Saturday night. The winner will likely get a big fight later this year. The bout will be televised via the internet on gofightlive.com.
This is a fight that was postponed from last month when a tough coastal snowstorm shut down the city for a few days. So both guys should be well prepared for battle with the extra time to prepare. This is viewable either live or internet only and seems like a bout that is well under the radar.
Camacho was a touted young puncher that was somewhat exposed as one dimensional when he dropped decisions to Terrence Cauthen and Carlos Molina. Alvarez has been on the fringes of the better welterweights for a few years but has lost his biggest fights.
Alvarez is a 5’7 southpaw who is very workman like. He’s strong, fairly straight forward and looks to apply pressure. He has been able to roll over weaker opposition but he has had some notable struggles with some mid level opposition.
Against perennial loser Marteze Logan, Alvarez looked to have his hands full before he found the sweet spot and scored a sudden KO in the 7th round. And he struggled to get by Enrique Gutierrez, who subsequently dropped 3 in row after losing to Alvarez.
He got a match with former titlist Joshua Clottey in an eliminator and was never in the fight, losing nearly all of the rounds in a fairly uneventful contest. And in an odd scoring fight, Alvarez won a majority decision over Terrence Cauthen. 2 scores were wide for Alvarez while the other was a ruled a draw.
Alvarez came forward in the fight but I thought the match was much closer to a draw vote. And in his last fight, he had some moments against inconsistent Delvin Rodriguez but was hurt and nearly stopped late on the way to a decision loss.
I don’t think Alvarez will ever get over the hump and beat the better guys. But I think he believes, and the odds makers do too, that Camacho will be an easy obstacle to get him back to at least trying to do so.
The have a common opponent in Terrence Cauthen. Cauthen was able to outbox a forward moving Camacho in an 8 rounder 2 years ago while Alvarez took a close call, in my view, over Cauthen.
And Camacho was clearly out boxed by spoiler Carlos Molina over 10 rounds last year. But Molina is a real sleeper who I believe could score other upsets in the division, including over Alvarez.
One thing about Camacho is that he can punch. He will continue to press forward, looking to land power shots and he seems to be a tough guy. And his style may match up well with Alvarez. Alvarez is not a slickster and tends to be in front of his opponents. Alvarez is solid enough to beat serviceable guys but he doesn’t seem to have an extra gear or an explosiveness about him. He just works hard but in a methodical way. That’s probably why he has had several close calls in his career.
Camacho is the puncher in this fight. And if they trade shots in this fight, he has a chance to surprise Alvarez. In Camacho’s penultimate fight, he knocked out tough journeyman Edvan Dos Santos Barros with a single punch early in the contest. Barros had beaten Enrique Gutierrez, who gave Alvarez a struggle, and has gone the distance with bruisers like Jesus Soto Karass and Mike Alvarado along with a 10 round decision loss to former champ Luis Collazo.
I think Camacho is being summarily dismissed because of his losses in his step up fights. But he can punch and Alvarez is the type of fighter that will engage with him. Alvarez is not the tricky boxer that Molina is nor is he the moving slapper like a Cauthen.
Alvarez has fought much better fighters and could simply be the better guy. Camacho can be wide with his shots and is no speed demon by any means. But I’ve never been overly impressed with Alvarez and as I’ve said, he’s workmanlike but ordinary – he doesn’t always really separate himself from supposedly lesser opposition. I don’t see him as anything extraordinary as a fighter and I could see him in a shoot out with this taller, Mexican puncher which could be to his detriment.
How I would bet on the fight:
With odds on Camacho at +500, or thereabouts, I just think it’s worth a nominal play based on the totality of circumstances as I see them. I’m putting 0.5% of the BoxingForecast fund on a Camacho win. Betting line came from thegreek.com. Alvarez is fighting in his home town but it’s noteworthy, for what it’s worth, if anything, that both guys are promoted by Starboxing. I give Camacho about a 40-45% chance at a win.
