Risk Management Betting System
A Sports Betting System That Helps You Keep What You Win!
As I have emphasized elsewhere on this site, BoxingForecast.com is not JUST about picking winners - it's about making money - without risking your neck! My sports betting system can help you decide how much to wager on each fight. It’s a sports betting system that can give you the discipline you need to grow your fund consistently, in spite of unavoidable losses.
In Sports Betting, You Can’t Win Them All
It may seem strange for me to admit this, but I am never 100% confident about any of my picks! I am an analyst – not a fortune-teller! My fight picks are based on probability – not certainty. But even when I’m not highly confident in the outcome, I’m still willing to place a bet if I see value in the odds. I just take a smaller risk!
So my confidence level determines the amount I would be willing to risk on each bout. This sports betting system is my way of translating that confidence level into an actual wager.
The Sports Betting Risk/Reward Ratio
No matter what the odds are in a fight or whether I like the favorite or the underdog, I’m always looking for betting “value” in every boxing match. By value I mean that the odds don’t accurately reflect the risk of a given outcome. In other words, the potential reward outweighs the apparent risk. This is where a handicapper earns his pay.
Naturally, the best picks are the ones where the fighter has a high probability of victory, and the odds offer great betting value. But this is relatively rare.
More often we need to take a hard look at a fighter’s chance of winning compared to the odds that are available. There may be times, for example, when a fighter is a 15-1 favorite that I believe has a better than 80% chance of winning. But in my view betting that favorite would be way too risky. No matter how strongly favored a fighter is, it makes no sense to risk $15 to win $1 - especially when so many solid picks combined with reasonable value come down the pike almost every weekend.
As a personal preference, I would be extremely reluctant to lay more than 4-1 on any fighter, no matter the likelihood of victory. Reason being, the simple risk/reward ratio.
The bottom line for me is making steady gains with minimal risk. And by looking for smart picks, combined with wagering value, and managing your money intelligently, you can make consistent gains wagering on the sport of boxing, while enjoying the peace of mind that you will not suffer a big loss to your bankroll.
A Sports Betting System Built on Confidence
In the betting system chart below, the boxing gloves represent my level of confidence that my pick will pay off; 1/2 glove is least confident, 5 gloves is most confident. I often recommend a small wager on a long shot even when I don't have much confidence that it will win. The risk is small, and the payoff can be big.
I rate the risk in each of my picks by assigning them from one-half to five “Boxing Gloves” per pick. Each boxing glove icon in the chart below represents 1% of my of Track Record fund that I would be willing to risk on an individual bet. The three numerical columns represent YOUR personal attitude toward risk. Only you can decide what kind of a bettor you are. So you decide which column you belong in, and calculate the amount of your wager accordingly.
My Track Record is based upon the numbers in the "Average" risk column.
How to deal with changing odds
The odds (or betting lines) on any fight often change during the time leading up to a fight, and are often not the same as they were at the time I wrote my forecast. In some cases the line may have changed so much that the fight is not worth betting on. The chart below shows the minimum acceptable lines for each level of risk. If the line on a particular outcome becomes less favorable than the numbers shown, I generally suggest that you do not bet on that outcome.
For your guidance: when a bookmaker establishes a money, a “+” (plus sign) preceding the number means that is an underdog bet. For example, with a line of +150 you would win $150 for every $100 wagered. If you believe that an underdog play is worth the risk at +150, then anything number above that, say +200, would be in your favor, because you would win more money with the same $100 bet. But if the line declines to +110, the smaller potential profit from the bet may no longer be worth the risk.
On the other hand, a money line beginning with a “–“ (minus sign) indicates the betting favorite. For example a betting line of -150, means you would have to wager $150 to win $100. If you believe that a bet on the favorite is worth the risk at -150, and the line declines to -300, then you would have to put up twice as much money to win the same $100, and it may not be worth the risk.
This chart will help you decide whether to place a bet after the lines have changed. It explains what I feel is the probability of a win at each risk level, and what I consider to be the betting line limits for each risk level.
YOUR PERSONAL ATTITUDE TOWARD RISK
 0% |
 .5% |
 1% |
| MY RATING | WIN PROBABILITY AND MINIMUM BETTING LINE | YOU ARE: CONSERVATIVE | YOU ARE: AVERAGE | YOU ARE: AGGRESSIVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
25 - 40% chance of winning. Line should be +300 or higher | 0.25% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
|
40 - 50% chance of winning. Line should be +150 or higher | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
|
|
50 - 60% chance of winning. Line should be +100 or higher | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
|
|
60 -70% chance of winning. Line should be no less than -150 | 1.5% | 3.0% | 6.0% |
|
|
70 - 80% chance of winning. Line must be no less than -200 | 2.0% | 4.0% | 8.0% |
|
|
> 80% chance of winning. Line should be no less than -400 | 2.5% | 5.0% | 10.0% |
This boxing sports betting system is only a basic guide. If you are a little more or a little less aggressive than average, you may wish to increase or decrease the amounts you wager accordingly.
A Way to Enhance Your Winnings Without Risking Your Neck
Some people divide their betting fund into several parts. For example:
- Their core fund: money they don't want to lose
- Their early winnings: money they can afford to lose
- Their excess winnings: money they can have fun with
They treat their core fund conservatively, their early winnings more aggressively, and their excess winnings most aggressively, using different columns on the chart for each section of the fund.
Important: If you do this, each time you win, you should add a percentage of your winnings - perhaps 50% - to your core fund. That way your core fund will grow, and you will be protected from the impulse to wager too aggressively, just because you are having a winning streak.
Using this sports betting system will reduce your fund's volatility - the wild swings that can occur when you wager too aggressively - and will help you to survive extended losses, without serious damage to your bank account.
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